Search for: All records

Abstract While recent observational studies of intensifying (IN) versus steady-state (SS) hurricanes have noted several differences in their axisymmetric and asymmetric structures, there remain gaps in the characterization of these differences in a fully three-dimensional framework. To address these limitations, this study investigates differences in the shear-relative asymmetric structure between IN and SS hurricanes using airborne Doppler radar data from a dataset covering an extended period of time. Statistics from individual cases show that IN cases are characterized by peak wavenumber-1 ascent concentrated in the upshear-left (USL) quadrant at ∼12-km height, consistent with previous studies. Moderate updrafts (2–6 m s⁻¹) occur more frequently in the downshear eyewall for IN cases than for SS cases, likely leading to a higher frequency of moderate to strong updrafts USL above 9-km height. Composites of IN cases show that low-level outflow from the eye region associated with maximum wavenumber-1 vorticity inside the radius of maximum wind (RMW) in the downshear-left quadrant converges with low-level inflow outside the RMW, forming a stronger local secondary circulation in the downshear eyewall than SS cases. The vigorous eyewall convection of IN cases produces a net vertical mass flux increasing with height up to ∼5 km and then is almost constant up to 10 km, whereas the net vertical mass flux of SS cases decreases with height above 4 km. Strong USL upper-level ascent provides greater potential for the vertical development of the hurricane vortex, which is argued to be favorable for continued intensification in shear environments. 

Key Points Lateral entrainment of air from the moat region into eyewall and rainbands of a tropical cyclone (TC) satisfies the instability criterion Positive buoyancy flux induced by the entrainment is an important source of turbulent kinetic energy for the eyewall and rainband clouds Lateral entrainment instability should be included in turbulent mixing parameterizations in TC forecast models 

In a tropical cyclone (TC), turbulence not only exists in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) but also can be generated above the PBL by the cloud processes in the eyewall and rainbands. It is found that the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), a new multi-scale operational model for TC prediction, fails to capture the intense turbulent mixing in eyewall and rainband clouds due to a poor estimation of static stability in clouds. The problem is fixed by including the effects of multi-phase water in the stability calculation. Simulations of 21 TCs and tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin of 2016–2019 hurricane seasons totaling 118 forecast cycles show that the stability correction substantially improves HAFS's skill in predicting storm track and intensity. Analyses of HAFS's simulations of Hurricane Michael (2018) show that the positive tendency of vortex's tangential wind resulting from the radially inward transport of absolute vorticity dominates the eddy correlation tendencies induced by the model-resolved asymmetric eddies and serves as a main mechanism for the rapid intensification of Michael. The sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulent transport above the PBL in the eyewall plays a pivotal role in initiating a positive feedback among the eyewall convection, mean secondary overturning circulation, vortex acceleration via the inward transport of absolute vorticity, surface evaporation, and radial convergence of moisture in the PBL. Without the SGS transport above the PBL, the model-resolved vertical transport alone may not be sufficient in initiating the positive feedback underlying the rapid intensification of TCs. 

This paper reviews the evolution of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes that have been used in the operational version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model since 2011. Idealized simulations are then used to evaluate the effects of different PBL schemes on hurricane structure and intensity. The original Global Forecast System (GFS) PBL scheme in the 2011 version of HWRF produces the weakest storm, while a modified GFS scheme using a wind-speed dependent parameterization of vertical eddy diffusivity (Km) produces the strongest storm. The subsequent version of the hybrid eddy diffusivity and mass flux scheme (EDMF) used in HWRF also produces a strong storm, similar to the version using the wind-speed dependent Km. Both the intensity change rate and maximum intensity of the simulated storms vary with different PBL schemes, mainly due to differences in the parameterization of Km. The smaller the Km in the PBL scheme, the faster a storm tends to intensify. Differences in hurricane PBL height, convergence, inflow angle, warm-core structure, distribution of deep convection, and agradient force in these simulations are also examined. Compared to dropsonde and Doppler radar composites, improvements in the kinematic structure are found in simulations using the wind-speed dependent Km and modified EDMF schemes relative to those with earlier versions of the PBL schemes in HWRF. However, the upper boundary layer in all simulations is much cooler and drier than that in dropsonde observations. This model deficiency needs to be considered and corrected in future model physics upgrades. 

Abstract The hurricane boundary layer (HBL) has been observed in great detail through aircraft investigations of tropical cyclones over the open ocean, but the coastal transition of the HBL has been less frequently observed. During the landfall of Hurricane Irene (2011), research and operational aircraft over water sampled the open-ocean HBL simultaneously with ground-based research and operational Doppler radars onshore. The location of the radars afforded 13 h of dual-Doppler analysis over the coastal region. Thus, the HBL from the coastal waterways, through the coastal transition, and onshore was observed in great detail for the first time. Three regimes of HBL structure were found. The outer bands were characterized by temporal perturbations of the HBL structure with attendant low-level wind maxima in the vicinity of rainbands. The inner core, in contrast, did not produce such perturbations, but did see a reduction of the height of the maximum wind and a more jet-like HBL wind profile. In the eyewall, a tangential wind maximum was observed within the HBL over water as in past studies and above the HBL onshore. However, the transition of the tangential wind maximum through the coastal transition showed that the maximum continued to reside in the HBL through 5 km inland, which has not been observed previously. It is shown that the adjustment of the HBL to the coastal surface roughness discontinuity does not immediately mix out the residual high-momentum jet aloft. Thus, communities closest to the coast are likely to experience the strongest winds onshore prior to the complete adjustment of the HBL. 

Abstract. The fundamental mechanism underlying tropical cyclone (TC) intensification may be understood from the conservation of absolute angular momentum, where the primary circulation of a TC is driven by the torque acting on air parcels resulting from asymmetric eddy processes, including turbulence. While turbulence is commonly regarded as a flow feature pertaining to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), intense turbulent mixing generated by cloud processes also exists above the PBL in the eyewall and rainbands. Unlike the eddy forcing within the PBL that is negative definite, the sign of eyewall/rainband eddy forcing above the PBL is indefinite and thus provides a possible mechanism to spin up a TC vortex. In this study, we show that the Hurricane Weather Research & forecasting (HWRF) model, one of the operational models used for TC prediction, is unable to generate appropriate sub-grid-scale (SGS) eddy forcing above the PBL due to lack of consideration of intense turbulent mixing generated by the eyewall and rainband clouds. Incorporating an in-cloud turbulent mixing parameterization in the PBL scheme notably improves HWRF's skills on predicting rapid changes in intensity for several past major hurricanes. While the analyses show that the SGS eddy forcing above the PBL is only about one-fifth of the model-resolved eddy forcing, the simulated TC vortex inner-core structure and the associated model-resolved eddy forcing exhibit a substantial dependence on the parameterized SGS eddy processes. The results highlight the importance of eyewall/rainband SGS eddy forcing to numerical prediction of TC intensification, including rapid intensification at the current resolution of operational models.